FOSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOSL - Fossil Group, Inc.
$4.06
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-8.76%
30d:
-27.5%
90d:
+6.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
FOSL is down 8.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $3 2026-06-18 with 562 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FOSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FOSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOSL is currently trading at $4.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.22 to $5.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 40.6) compared to its historical average (50.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.71, while resistance sits at $4.65.
Market Sentiment: FOSL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+72.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.71, while resistance sits at $4.65.
Market Sentiment: FOSL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+72.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.22 -
$5.28
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.4% below Wall St target ($7.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.22 -
$5.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.71
Resistance Level
$4.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.60
Wall Street Target
$7.00
(+72.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.6 vs 50.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.77
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$3.50
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.24
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→51)
$4.05
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.6 to 50.7
Stabilization Target:
$5.07
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Suzanne M Coulter
BUY
28170 shares
2025-12-03
Randy J Greben
BUY
20980 shares
2025-11-24
Pamela J Edwards
BUY
10000 shares
2025-11-21
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