FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$11.12
0.36 (3.35%)
▲
5d:
-8.1%
30d:
-8.02%
90d:
-27.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FWRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FWRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $11.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.26 to $12.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 36.3) compared to its historical average (44.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2290.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.68, while resistance sits at $13.21. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+76.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.68, while resistance sits at $13.21. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+76.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.26 -
$12.92
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.6% below Wall St target ($19.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.26 -
$12.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.68
Resistance Level
$13.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.30
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+76.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2290.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.3 vs 44.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.07
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$9.43
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$8.82
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→44)
$10.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.3, Growth: 42.6%)
$31.23
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 42.6%)
$18.96
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 42.6%)
$16.11
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$12.56
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.9%, PE expands to 42.4
Base Case
$11.42
(+6%)
Market implied 5.9%, PE stable at 38.5
Bear Case
$7.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.3 to 44.2
Stabilization Target:
$13.10
(+21.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
H Melville Hope III
SELL
3878 shares
2026-03-17
Jay Anthony Wolszczak
SELL
3161 shares
2026-03-17
John Daniel Jones
SELL
1697 shares
2026-03-17
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