FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$13.09
-0.25 (-1.87%)
▼
5d:
+7.3%
30d:
+25.38%
90d:
+19.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FWRG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FWRG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $13.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.68 to $12.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 48.6) compared to its historical average (43.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.25 (+47.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.25 (+47.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.68 -
$12.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.1% below Wall St target ($19.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.68 -
$12.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.97
Resistance Level
$12.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.64
Wall Street Target
$19.25
(+47.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2290.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
48.6 vs 43.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.55
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$14.02
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$14.51
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.6, Growth: 53.0%)
$44.18
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 53.0%)
$19.78
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 53.0%)
$16.81
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 46.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$13.64
(+4%)
Analyst growth -3.9%, PE expands to 50.7
Base Case
$12.40
(-5%)
Market implied -3.9%, PE stable at 46.1
Bear Case
$8.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
H Melville Hope III
SELL
3878 shares
2026-03-17
Jay Anthony Wolszczak
SELL
3161 shares
2026-03-17
John Daniel Jones
SELL
1697 shares
2026-03-17
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