GRBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc
$62.00
-2.02 (-3.16%)
▼
5d:
-6.19%
30d:
-5.62%
90d:
-23.07%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GRBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GRBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.89
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $62.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.61 to $69.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.61 -
$69.91
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.61 -
$69.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.15
Resistance Level
$68.41
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.19
Wall Street Target
$62.00
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.8%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$61.75
(0%)
3-Year Target
$61.63
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$62.30
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.5%)
$186.41
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$86.06
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$73.15
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.79
Bull Case
$61.77
(0%)
Analyst growth -10.4%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$56.16
(-9%)
Market implied -10.4%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$42.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$62.68
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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