GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$137.28
-1.27 (-0.92%)
▼
5d:
-2.78%
30d:
+10.47%
90d:
+6.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.75
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $137.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.97 to $139.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $166.50 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $166.50 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$123.97 -
$139.87
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($166.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.97 -
$139.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.23
Resistance Level
$145.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.94
Wall Street Target
$166.50
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.38
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$140.22
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$141.06
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$138.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$218.93
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 10.7%)
$187.88
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$159.70
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$309.85
(+124%)
Analyst growth 99.9%, PE expands to 42.4
Base Case
$281.68
(+103%)
Market implied 99.9%, PE stable at 38.5
Bear Case
$95.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
26651 shares
2026-03-27
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
7314 shares
2026-03-19
Staci M Woolsey
SELL
1523 shares
2026-03-19
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