GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$140.26
4.55 (3.35%)
▲
5d:
+7.78%
30d:
+6.86%
90d:
+14.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GWRE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.2% annual earnings decline despite 228% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GWRE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.2% annual earnings decline despite 228% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.38
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $140.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.55 to $142.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.1) compared to its historical average (42.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 228.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $122.50, while resistance sits at $145.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.69 (+62.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $122.50, while resistance sits at $145.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.69 (+62.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$130.55 -
$142.01
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 62.3% below Wall St target ($227.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.55 -
$142.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.50
Resistance Level
$145.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.12
Wall Street Target
$227.69
(+62.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
228.0%
Profit Margin
14.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.1 vs 42.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.76
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$118.20
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$108.51
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→43)
$140.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.1, Growth: 20.5%)
$245.65
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 20.5%)
$163.08
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 20.5%)
$138.62
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.10 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.76
Bull Case
$163.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$135.71
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.1
Bear Case
$103.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.1 to 42.8
Stabilization Target:
$181.23
(+29.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-06
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