GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$137.06
-0.53 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
+13.39%
30d:
-9.33%
90d:
-7.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GWRE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GWRE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $137.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.98 to $145.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.5) compared to its historical average (40.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.65, while resistance sits at $173.18.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $203.42 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.65, while resistance sits at $173.18.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $203.42 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$110.98 -
$145.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($203.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.98 -
$145.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.65
Resistance Level
$173.18
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.50
Wall Street Target
$203.42
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.8%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.5 vs 40.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.06
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$121.06
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$113.55
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→41)
$137.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$225.31
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$146.50
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$124.53
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 30.58 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.50
Bull Case
$166.14
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.1
Base Case
$137.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$105.26
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.5 to 40.5
Stabilization Target:
$166.36
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 4:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-06
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