HLIT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLIT - Harmonic Inc
$14.07
-1.71 (-10.84%)
▼
5d:
-5.25%
30d:
-9.69%
90d:
+54.96%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLIT is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HLIT is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.17
13.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLIT is currently trading at $14.07, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.05 to $16.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.05 -
$16.03
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLIT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.05 -
$16.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.78
Resistance Level
$16.49
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.10
Wall Street Target
$15.29
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Profit Margin
-10.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.58
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$14.84
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 102.8%)
$57.14
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 102.8%)
$47.49
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 102.8%)
$40.36
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 18.83 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.75
Bull Case
$16.99
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$14.07
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$10.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLIT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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