HLIT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLIT - Harmonic Inc
$12.54
-0.80 (-6.00%)
▼
5d:
-2.11%
30d:
+22.7%
90d:
+17.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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1 traders called HLIT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLIT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLIT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.07
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.33
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLIT is currently trading at $12.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.81 to $12.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.61, while resistance sits at $15.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLIT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.14 (+20.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLIT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.61, while resistance sits at $15.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLIT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.14 (+20.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.81 -
$12.29
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLIT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.8% below Wall St target ($15.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.81 -
$12.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.61
Resistance Level
$15.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.45
Wall Street Target
$15.14
(+20.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Profit Margin
-10.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.48
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.41
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.35
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$12.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 21.6%)
$30.25
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 21.6%)
$22.55
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 21.6%)
$19.16
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 18.83 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.67
Bull Case
$15.14
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$12.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$9.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.73
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLIT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
23835 shares
2025-12-15
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SELL
6165 shares
2025-12-12
David Krall
BUY
47528 shares
2025-12-11
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