HLNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLNE - Hamilton Lane Incorporated Class A Common Stock
$86.25
1.09 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
-2.61%
30d:
-19.23%
90d:
-28.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLNE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLNE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.02
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.77
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLNE is currently trading at $86.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.25 to $101.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLNE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLNE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.14 (+62.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLNE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLNE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.14 (+62.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$87.25 -
$101.75
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.2% below Wall St target ($138.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.25 -
$101.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.08
Resistance Level
$94.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.98
Wall Street Target
$138.14
(+62.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Profit Margin
30.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 19.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$68.98
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$62.08
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→20)
$88.35
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$155.68
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 5.0%)
$98.64
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$83.84
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.61
Bull Case
$106.10
(+25%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$96.46
(+13%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$60.42
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$121.19
(+42.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:03 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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