IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$8.04
-0.04 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
-2.37%
30d:
-2.61%
90d:
-7.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
IVR is down 3.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $9 2026-07-17 with 5,294 OI. Call ratio: 89% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: IVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.09
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $8.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.10 to $8.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.7) is in line with its historical norms (3.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.10 -
$8.35
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.10 -
$8.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.95
Resistance Level
$8.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.69
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
76.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
3.7 vs 3.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.10
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$8.11
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$8.13
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$8.15
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.0%)
$62.42
(+673%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 9.0%)
$10.45
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 9.0%)
$8.88
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$18.02
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$16.38
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$5.57
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Waldner
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-27
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