IVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
$7.85
-0.04 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
+0.26%
30d:
+0.26%
90d:
-1.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IVR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: IVR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.24
Based on -40.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IVR is currently trading at $7.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.81 to $7.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.8) is in line with its historical norms (3.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.81 -
$7.99
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.81 -
$7.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.76
Resistance Level
$8.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.80
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
557.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Profit Margin
76.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 3.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.94
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.02
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$8.11
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.90
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -84.0%)
$43.85
(+459%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: -84.0%)
$7.65
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.2, Growth: -84.0%)
$6.51
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$17.36
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$15.78
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$5.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Waldner
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-27
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