JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$23.44
0.10 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
+7.62%
90d:
+16.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JAKK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JAKK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.70
8.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $23.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.71 to $23.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JAKK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.71 -
$23.09
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with -5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.71 -
$23.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.33
Resistance Level
$23.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.17
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$25.11
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$25.99
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.57
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 47.6%)
$229.15
(+878%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 47.6%)
$75.42
(+222%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 47.6%)
$64.11
(+174%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$51.35
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$46.68
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.3
Bear Case
$15.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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