JRVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$4.15
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-35.66%
90d:
-39.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JRVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JRVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.17
42.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $4.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.15 to $6.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.6) compared to its historical average (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.76, while resistance sits at $6.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+68.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.76, while resistance sits at $6.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+68.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.15 -
$6.71
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.7% below Wall St target ($7.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.15 -
$6.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.76
Resistance Level
$6.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.64
Wall Street Target
$7.00
(+68.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.3%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.6 vs 5.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.32
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 30.3%)
$55.74
(+1243%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.6, Growth: 30.3%)
$9.19
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 30.3%)
$7.81
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$9.35
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$8.50
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$2.89
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.6 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$5.93
(+42.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JRVR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JRVR price and gamma walls.
