KBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KBH - KB Home
$45.07
-1.82 (-3.88%)
▼
5d:
-8.99%
30d:
-13.21%
90d:
-32.08%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.53
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KBH is currently trading at $45.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.20 to $54.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.15 (+22.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.15 (+22.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.20 -
$54.44
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.4% below Wall St target ($55.15)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.20 -
$54.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.30
Resistance Level
$50.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.70
Wall Street Target
$55.15
(+22.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.0%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.76
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$42.49
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$41.26
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$45.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 43.1%)
$300.51
(+567%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 43.1%)
$132.12
(+193%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 43.1%)
$112.30
(+149%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.18
Bull Case
$46.25
(+3%)
Analyst growth -10.3%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$42.05
(-7%)
Market implied -10.3%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$31.89
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$49.24
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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