KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$33.49
-0.13 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-8.32%
30d:
-0.21%
90d:
-8.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.68
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.64
21.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $33.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.09 to $35.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $31.71, while resistance sits at $36.34.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.79 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $31.71, while resistance sits at $36.34.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.79 (+12.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$33.09 -
$35.86
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.79)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.09 -
$35.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.72
Resistance Level
$36.34
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.42
Wall Street Target
$37.79
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.13
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→15)
$43.19
(+29%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.0%)
$91.82
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 2.0%)
$35.51
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 2.0%)
$30.18
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$73.96
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$67.24
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$22.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$59.25
(+76.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+76.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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