KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$34.65
-0.53 (-1.51%)
▼
5d:
-4.02%
30d:
-9.55%
90d:
-12.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -17.0% annual earnings decline despite 84% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -17.0% annual earnings decline despite 84% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.03
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $34.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.33 to $40.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.79 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.79 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.33 -
$40.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.33 -
$40.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.30
Resistance Level
$43.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.53
Wall Street Target
$38.79
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.26
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→17)
$44.01
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -7.5%)
$63.50
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: -7.5%)
$27.41
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -7.5%)
$23.30
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$77.40
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$70.36
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$23.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$60.37
(+74.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+74.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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