KREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KREF - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$6.40
-0.10 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
-3.25%
30d:
-3.4%
90d:
-8.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KREF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KREF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.94
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KREF is currently trading at $6.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.18 to $6.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.18 -
$6.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.5% growth with 245.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.18 -
$6.64
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.28
Resistance Level
$6.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.67
Wall Street Target
$6.33
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
245.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 11.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.11
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$7.78
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$8.52
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ralph F Rosenberg
SELL
125289 shares
2025-12-03
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