Is PTON stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PTON is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PTON stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PTON to be between $4.82 and $5.41. The current price is $5.18.

What is the analyst price target for PTON?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PTON is $7.97. This implies a potential upside of 51.5% from current levels.

PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SPORTING & ATHLETIC GOODS, NEC

$5.18

-0.08 (-1.52%) ▼

5d: -8.48%

30d: +6.58%

90d: +22.46%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 13, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

PTON is down 7.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-07-17 with 47,636 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$10.77

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$6.69

22.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.82 to $5.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.97 (+51.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $4.82 - $5.41

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 51.5% below Wall St target ($7.97)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.5% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $4.82 - $5.41

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $5.07

Resistance Level $6.04

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of May 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.69

Wall Street Target $7.97 (+51.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.1%

Profit Margin 0.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.7 vs 20.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $5.17 (-2%)

2-Year Target $5.08 (-3%)

3-Year Target $5.00 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 20→21) $5.25 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.0, Growth: 102.2%) $19.87 (+278%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 102.2%) $17.75 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 16.7, Growth: 102.2%) $15.09 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 16.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.32

Bull Case $6.35 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.1

Base Case $5.26 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.3

Bear Case $4.02 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 20.7

Stabilization Target: $5.53 (+5.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +5.1%

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Last updated: May 14, 2026 2:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Charles Peter Kirol SELL 3670 shares 2026-04-20

Charles Peter Kirol SELL 19806 shares 2026-04-16

Maria Elvira Salazar BUY 2026-03-19

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Advanced PTON Option Strategies

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