MCFT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCFT - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$23.70
-0.94 (-3.81%)
▼
5d:
-13.44%
30d:
+7.68%
90d:
-0.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MCFT is down 13.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $12.5 2026-06-18 with 5 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MCFT is down 13.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MCFT is down 13.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.50
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.39
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCFT is currently trading at $23.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.89 to $24.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.30, while resistance sits at $28.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.30, while resistance sits at $28.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.89 -
$24.89
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCFT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.89 -
$24.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.61
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.30
Resistance Level
$28.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.42
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.80
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$21.93
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$21.10
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$23.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$64.99
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$36.57
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$31.08
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$52.29
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.0
Base Case
$47.54
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.5
Bear Case
$16.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$26.72
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 6:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCFT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
26497 shares
2026-02-20
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
30131 shares
2026-02-19
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
19050 shares
2026-02-18
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Advanced MCFT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCFT price and gamma walls.
