MCFT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCFT - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$27.38
1.81 (7.08%)
▲
5d:
+16.81%
30d:
+26.76%
90d:
+8.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MCFT is 12.4% above its trading range ($24.37). Market expects 4.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MCFT is 12.4% above its trading range ($24.37). Market expects 4.3% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.85
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCFT is currently trading at $27.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.18 to $24.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (13.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCFT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MCFT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.18 -
$24.37
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
Protect Your Profits
MCFT is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($25.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 12.4% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.18 -
$24.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.05
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.30
Resistance Level
$27.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.81
Wall Street Target
$25.80
(-5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 13.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.56
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$29.79
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$31.07
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$56.14
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$40.47
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$34.40
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94
Bull Case
$51.81
(+89%)
Analyst growth 84.2%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$47.10
(+72%)
Market implied 84.2%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$17.39
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 3:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCFT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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Advanced MCFT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCFT price and gamma walls.
