MFA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$9.36
0.03 (0.32%)
▲
5d:
-5.17%
30d:
+1.08%
90d:
-4.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MFA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.61
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.69
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $9.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.25 to $9.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.08 (+50.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.08 (+50.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.62
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.5% below Wall St target ($14.08)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.11
Resistance Level
$9.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.34
Wall Street Target
$14.08
(+50.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-46.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.95
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.76
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$48.43
(+417%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 14.6%)
$14.10
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$11.98
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$17.22
(+84%)
Analyst growth 67.7%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$15.65
(+67%)
Market implied 67.7%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$6.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.04
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 7:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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