MFA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$9.31
-0.23 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
-5.96%
30d:
-6.34%
90d:
-5.86%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MFA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.77
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $9.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.74 to $10.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+61.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+61.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.74 -
$10.24
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.1% below Wall St target ($15.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.74 -
$10.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.36
Resistance Level
$10.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+61.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-46.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.99
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.69
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$8.39
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.0%)
$45.10
(+385%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 11.0%)
$12.74
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$10.83
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$17.81
(+91%)
Analyst growth 69.7%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$16.19
(+74%)
Market implied 69.7%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$6.49
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$10.30
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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