MHO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MHO - M/I Homes, Inc.
$121.33
-5.18 (-4.09%)
▼
5d:
-7.99%
30d:
+1.71%
90d:
-18.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MHO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MHO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$238.38
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$148.02
18.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MHO is currently trading at $121.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.14 to $132.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $122.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.00 (+31.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $122.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.00 (+31.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$123.14 -
$132.40
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.9% below Wall St target ($160.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.14 -
$132.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.88
Resistance Level
$135.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.85
Wall Street Target
$160.00
(+31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.54
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$115.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$113.15
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$121.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 22.2%)
$622.83
(+413%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 22.2%)
$221.48
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 22.2%)
$188.25
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.31
Bull Case
$161.64
(+33%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$146.95
(+21%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$86.03
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$129.86
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MHO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ann Marie Hunker
SELL
132 shares
2026-02-12
Phillip G Creek
SELL
8616 shares
2026-02-12
Robert H Schottenstein
SELL
14974 shares
2026-02-12
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