MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$25.90
-0.01 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
-5.47%
90d:
-2.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.57
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $25.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.36 to $28.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.36 -
$28.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.36 -
$28.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.53
Resistance Level
$27.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.82
Wall Street Target
$28.80
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Profit Margin
59.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.31
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$24.73
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$24.16
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$25.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$92.98
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$33.00
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 8.4%)
$28.05
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$29.82
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$27.11
(+5%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$17.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$27.83
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
Paula C Maggio
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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