MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$28.23
0.10 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
+3.18%
30d:
+13.42%
90d:
+7.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.57
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $28.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.15 to $27.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $26.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $26.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.15 -
$27.31
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.15 -
$27.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.69
Resistance Level
$26.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$28.67
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Profit Margin
59.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.54
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$28.85
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$29.17
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$90.37
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 7.9%)
$35.47
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 7.9%)
$30.15
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$32.44
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.8%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$29.49
(+5%)
Market implied 4.8%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$19.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
Paula C Maggio
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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