MTRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTRX - Matrix Service Co
$11.85
-0.40 (-3.27%)
▼
5d:
-2.71%
30d:
-1.09%
90d:
+3.4%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.98
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTRX is currently trading at $11.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.92 to $13.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+68.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+68.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.92 -
$13.13
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.8% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.1% growth expectation is conservative given 175% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.92 -
$13.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.57
Resistance Level
$14.07
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.82
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+68.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.0%
Profit Margin
-1.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 14.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.57
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$13.34
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$14.15
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 259.5%)
$49.53
(+318%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 259.5%)
$39.99
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 259.5%)
$33.44
(+182%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nancy E Austin
SELL
4193 shares
2026-02-18
Shawn P Payne
SELL
5231 shares
2025-11-25
Shawn P Payne
SELL
3019 shares
2025-11-20
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