Is NCNO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, NCNO is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: NCNO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of NCNO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NCNO to be between $16.45 and $18.36. The current price is $15.41.

What is the analyst price target for NCNO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NCNO is $23.64. This implies a potential upside of 57.9% from current levels.

NCNO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NCNO - nCino, Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$15.41

0.44 (2.94%) ▲

5d: -7.95%

30d: -16.52%

90d: -4.76%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 27, 2026 8d

Smart Money Accumulation

NCNO is down 15.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $17.5 2026-06-18 with 143 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NCNO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$30.99

Based on 8.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$19.24

19.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NCNO is currently trading at $15.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.45 to $18.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NCNO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.47, while resistance sits at $18.34.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.64 (+57.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $16.45 - $18.36

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 57.9% below Wall St target ($23.64)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.9% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $16.45 - $18.36

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $14.48

Resistance Level $18.34

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.59

Wall Street Target $23.64 (+57.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.9%

Profit Margin 0.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -9.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.6 vs 19.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -9.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $13.50 (-10%)

2-Year Target $12.18 (-19%)

3-Year Target $10.99 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→20) $14.99 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.5%) $33.07 (+121%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 13.5%) $21.86 (+46%)

Bear: (PE: 12.4, Growth: 13.5%) $18.58 (+24%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 14.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.03

Bull Case $18.08 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.3

Base Case $14.97 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.6

Bear Case $11.45 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 19.9

Stabilization Target: $20.42 (+36.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +36.4%

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Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jeanette Sellers SELL 1873 shares 2026-04-14

Sean Desmond SELL 15440 shares 2026-04-06

Gregory Orenstein SELL 8840 shares 2026-04-02

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Advanced NCNO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCNO price and gamma walls.

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