NTGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTGR - NETGEAR, Inc.
$24.75
-1.07 (-4.14%)
▼
5d:
-9.9%
30d:
-4.92%
90d:
+12.81%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
NTGR is down 9.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 2,633 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NTGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NTGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTGR is currently trading at $24.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.40 to $26.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 40.8) compared to its historical average (60.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.00 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.40 -
$26.52
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NTGR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($35.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.40 -
$26.52
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.00
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.45
Resistance Level
$27.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.79
Wall Street Target
$35.00
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
-3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.8 vs 60.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.28
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.04
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→61)
$26.85
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.8, Growth: 203.4%)
$83.53
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 203.4%)
$45.19
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 203.4%)
$38.41
(+55%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.8 to 60.7
Stabilization Target:
$36.83
(+48.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pramod Badjate
SELL
3000 shares
2026-02-02
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Advanced NTGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTGR price and gamma walls.
