NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$483.20
-25.95 (-5.10%)
▼
5d:
-8.14%
30d:
-8.62%
90d:
+9.24%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVMI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NVMI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$558.81
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$346.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $483.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $496.66 to $530.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 40.8) is in line with its historical norms (38.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $477.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $477.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$496.66 -
$530.81
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($497.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$496.66 -
$530.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$477.04
Resistance Level
$565.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.75
Wall Street Target
$497.25
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.4%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
40.8 vs 38.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$517.81
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$526.61
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$535.56
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$508.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$900.89
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$487.86
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$414.68
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.34
Bull Case
$614.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$509.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.3
Bear Case
$389.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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