NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$5563.62
-116.99 (-2.06%)
▼
5d:
-6.87%
30d:
-17.01%
90d:
-25.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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1 traders called NVR this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10792.43
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6701.25
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $5563.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5946.61 to $6812.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5520.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7070.00 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5520.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7070.00 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5946.61 -
$6812.02
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($7070.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5946.61 -
$6812.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5520.00
Resistance Level
$6279.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.25
Wall Street Target
$7070.00
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.5%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 16.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5201.98
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4863.86
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$4547.71
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$5559.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.5%)
$14270.10
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$8568.58
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$7283.29
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $409.57
Bull Case
$6405.21
(+15%)
Analyst growth 2.5%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$5822.92
(+5%)
Market implied 2.5%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$3862.82
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$6801.25
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
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