NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6750.79
107.06 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
-0.93%
30d:
+9.22%
90d:
+1.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10811.60
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6713.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6750.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6137.71 to $6651.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6137.71 -
$6651.44
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7132.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -21.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6137.71 -
$6651.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5946.16
Resistance Level
$6447.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.07
Wall Street Target
$7132.00
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.5%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6771.04
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$6791.36
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$6811.73
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$6739.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$14416.60
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 16.4%)
$10637.85
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$9042.17
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $409.25
Bull Case
$7501.04
(+11%)
Analyst growth 2.6%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$6819.12
(+1%)
Market implied 2.6%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$4517.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
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