ONTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONTO - Onto Innovation Inc.
$307.58
-43.78 (-12.46%)
▼
5d:
-10.65%
30d:
+10.63%
90d:
+45.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONTO is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ONTO is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$484.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$300.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $307.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $267.82 to $338.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.9) is in line with its historical norms (29.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $296.55, while resistance sits at $386.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $296.55, while resistance sits at $386.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ONTO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.60 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$267.82 -
$338.65
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ONTO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-12.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($369.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$267.82 -
$338.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$296.55
Resistance Level
$386.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.93
Wall Street Target
$369.60
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.5%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
30.9 vs 29.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$313.12
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$318.75
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$324.49
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$307.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.9, Growth: 38.2%)
$812.18
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.2%)
$571.96
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 38.2%)
$486.17
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.02 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.27
Bull Case
$371.40
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.5
Base Case
$307.58
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.0
Bear Case
$235.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ONTO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ONTO price and gamma walls.
