ONTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONTO - Onto Innovation Inc.
$277.28
0.31 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
+7.1%
90d:
+29.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ONTO is down 5.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $350 2026-06-18 with 580 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ONTO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ONTO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$462.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$287.13
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONTO is currently trading at $277.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.35 to $300.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (28.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $266.52, while resistance sits at $309.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $352.14 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $266.52, while resistance sits at $309.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $352.14 (+27.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$253.35 -
$300.44
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($352.14)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$253.35 -
$300.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$266.52
Resistance Level
$309.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.19
Wall Street Target
$352.14
(+27.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.5%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 28.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$278.11
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$278.95
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$279.78
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$276.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 33.2%)
$655.97
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 33.2%)
$495.26
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 33.2%)
$420.97
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 39.68 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.99
Bull Case
$334.82
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$277.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.7
Bear Case
$212.12
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ONTO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ONTO price and gamma walls.
