ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$14.81
-0.64 (-4.14%)
▼
5d:
-7.55%
30d:
+5.04%
90d:
+31.76%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.16
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $14.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.82 to $15.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (27.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.28 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.28 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.82 -
$15.89
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.28)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.82 -
$15.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.38
(9.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.11
Resistance Level
$14.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.15
Wall Street Target
$17.28
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 27.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.65
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$12.59
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$11.61
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$14.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 76.7%)
$51.46
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 76.7%)
$49.98
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 76.7%)
$42.49
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.36
Bull Case
$17.88
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$14.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$11.33
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 27.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.90
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin J Shanfelter
SELL
90000 shares
2026-03-10
Quentin P Jr. Smith
SELL
10695 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
