ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$15.48
0.13 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
+4.95%
30d:
+32.08%
90d:
+13.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ORN is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 139 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.24
27.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $15.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.43 to $14.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.0) compared to its historical average (28.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.43 -
$14.53
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.43 -
$14.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.15
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.68
Resistance Level
$15.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.03
Wall Street Target
$16.75
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 28.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.16
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$12.96
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$11.86
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→29)
$15.50
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 76.6%)
$52.26
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 76.6%)
$52.24
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 76.6%)
$44.41
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.43
Bull Case
$18.69
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$15.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$11.84
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.0 to 28.8
Stabilization Target:
$20.23
(+30.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin J Shanfelter
SELL
90000 shares
2026-03-10
Quentin P Jr. Smith
SELL
10695 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
