Is PAYC stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PAYC is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: PAYC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PAYC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PAYC to be between $120.84 and $134.21. The current price is $136.24.

What is the analyst price target for PAYC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PAYC is $150.56. This implies a potential upside of 10.5% from current levels.

PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$136.24

2.63 (1.97%) ▲

5d: -0.46%

30d: +8.53%

90d: +8.72%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your PAYC Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

PAYC is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 948 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →

Strength: 4.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAYC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$232.23

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$144.20

5.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $136.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.84 to $134.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $125.08, while resistance sits at $141.47.

Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $150.56 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $120.84 - $134.21

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 59.5%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($150.56)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $120.84 - $134.21

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $125.08

Resistance Level $141.47

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.14

Wall Street Target $150.56 (+10.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.6%

Profit Margin 22.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.1 vs 12.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $129.97 (-5%)

2-Year Target $123.99 (-9%)

3-Year Target $118.29 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→13) $135.91 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.5%) $384.63 (+182%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 12.5%) $194.15 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 9.5, Growth: 12.5%) $165.02 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.64

Bull Case $208.03 (+53%)

Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 17.0

Base Case $189.12 (+39%)

Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 15.5

Bear Case $90.85 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.8

Stabilization Target: $156.54 (+14.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.9%

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Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. BUY 2026-03-13

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-02-24

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-02-17

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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.

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