PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$140.07
6.46 (4.83%)
▲
5d:
+2.34%
30d:
+11.58%
90d:
+11.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
PAYC is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 948 OI. Call ratio: 76% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.05
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.33
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $140.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.84 to $134.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $150.56 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $150.56 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$120.84 -
$134.21
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($150.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.84 -
$134.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.08
Resistance Level
$141.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.93
Wall Street Target
$150.56
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.53
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$119.82
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$113.47
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$133.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.5%)
$384.10
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 12.5%)
$190.40
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 12.5%)
$161.84
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.63
Bull Case
$210.28
(+57%)
Analyst growth 41.7%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$191.17
(+43%)
Market implied 41.7%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$91.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$157.76
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
