REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$11.26
-0.06 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-5.85%
30d:
-5.06%
90d:
-5.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.99
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.79
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $11.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.44 to $12.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+45.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+45.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.44 -
$12.11
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.4% below Wall St target ($16.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.44 -
$12.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.10
Resistance Level
$12.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$16.38
(+45.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.1%
Profit Margin
61.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.76
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.29
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$9.84
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$11.21
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$56.56
(+402%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 12.4%)
$15.97
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$13.58
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$15.46
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.5%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$14.05
(+25%)
Market implied 25.5%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$7.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$12.83
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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