REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$10.68
-0.15 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
-3.17%
30d:
-5.32%
90d:
-2.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.32
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.37
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $10.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.95 to $11.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.95 -
$11.40
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.3% below Wall St target ($16.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.95 -
$11.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.03
Resistance Level
$11.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.74
Wall Street Target
$16.38
(+53.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.1%
Profit Margin
61.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.04
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$9.44
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$8.87
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$55.17
(+417%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 10.8%)
$14.55
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$12.36
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$15.30
(+43%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$13.91
(+30%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$7.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$12.83
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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