RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$5.24
-0.02 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-6.01%
30d:
-11.57%
90d:
-20.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.75
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $5.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.58 to $5.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.97 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.97 (+32.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.58 -
$5.93
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($6.97)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.58 -
$5.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.17
Resistance Level
$5.73
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.17
Wall Street Target
$6.97
(+32.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-54.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 6.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.94
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.64
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$4.35
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$5.23
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.4%)
$25.54
(+386%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 4.4%)
$5.99
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 4.4%)
$5.09
(-3%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.31
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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