RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$4.48
-0.19 (-4.07%)
▼
5d:
-5.29%
30d:
-16.57%
90d:
-20.57%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.84
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.87
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $4.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.84 to $5.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.66 (+48.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.66 (+48.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.84 -
$5.35
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 48.6% below Wall St target ($6.66)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.84 -
$5.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.07
Resistance Level
$5.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.39
Wall Street Target
$6.66
(+48.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-54.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 6.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.30
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$4.51
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$26.53
(+492%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 6.1%)
$5.34
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 6.1%)
$4.54
(+1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$6.13
(+36.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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