SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$22.36
-0.18 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
+1.18%
30d:
-2.23%
90d:
+4.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 07, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.03
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $22.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.12 to $22.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.12 -
$22.53
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.12 -
$22.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.02
Resistance Level
$22.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.56
Wall Street Target
$23.20
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.67
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$22.83
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.46
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$47.75
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -2.1%)
$20.95
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$17.81
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$25.12
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$22.83
(+2%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$15.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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