SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$22.29
-0.05 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
-5.27%
30d:
+1.23%
90d:
-5.03%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SAR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SAR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.79
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $22.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.99 to $23.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.99 -
$23.20
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.99 -
$23.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.30
Resistance Level
$23.96
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.55
Wall Street Target
$23.40
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
30.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$22.70
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$22.88
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$48.10
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: -2.1%)
$20.93
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$17.79
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$25.07
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$22.79
(+2%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$15.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 10:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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