SBUX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBUX - Starbucks Corp
$103.11
-1.02 (-0.98%)
▼
5d:
-3.47%
30d:
+3.59%
90d:
+8.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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2 traders called SBUX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBUX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBUX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBUX is currently trading at $103.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.18 to $106.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.1) is in line with its historical norms (32.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBUX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$99.18 -
$106.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($106.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$99.18 -
$106.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.92
Resistance Level
$108.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.07
Wall Street Target
$106.58
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
34.1 vs 32.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.55
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$106.02
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$107.50
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$103.19
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.1, Growth: 26.6%)
$209.21
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 26.6%)
$135.04
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 26.6%)
$114.79
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 45.66 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.28
Bull Case
$125.74
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 48.0
Base Case
$104.13
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 45.7
Bear Case
$79.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBUX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brady Brewer
SELL
588 shares
2026-04-17
Jim Banks
SELL
2026-04-15
Brady Brewer
SELL
1641 shares
2026-04-06
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