SMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMSI - Smith Micro Software Inc
$2.91
0.03 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
-21.14%
30d:
+250.26%
90d:
+256.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SMSI is 12.8% above its trading range ($2.58). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SMSI is 12.8% above its trading range ($2.58). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.46
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.39
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMSI is currently trading at $2.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $0.25 to $2.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.9) compared to its historical average (3.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $0.78, while resistance sits at $4.31.
Market Sentiment: SMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.25 (+464.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $0.78, while resistance sits at $4.31.
Market Sentiment: SMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.25 (+464.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$0.25 -
$2.58
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 464.2% below Wall St target ($16.25)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-21.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$0.25 -
$2.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$0.78
Resistance Level
$4.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.88
Wall Street Target
$16.25
(+464.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.0%
Profit Margin
-165.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.9 vs 3.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.60
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.35
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$2.13
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$2.88
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.9 to 3.9
Stabilization Target:
$3.90
(+35.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 1:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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