STWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$17.75
-0.30 (-1.66%)
▼
5d:
-3.01%
30d:
+0.06%
90d:
-2.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.49
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $17.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.51 to $18.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 78.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.57 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.57 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$17.51 -
$18.31
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.51 -
$18.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.42
Resistance Level
$18.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$20.57
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
62.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.0%
Profit Margin
75.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.26
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$17.01
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.7%)
$53.20
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.7%)
$22.18
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$18.85
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.15
Bull Case
$33.50
(+89%)
Analyst growth 68.7%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$30.46
(+72%)
Market implied 68.7%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$12.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.43
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 6:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey G Dishner
SELL
7013 shares
2026-04-01
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