STWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$16.48
0.15 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
-0.78%
30d:
-3.63%
90d:
-3.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.08
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $16.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.61 to $17.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.25 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.25 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.61 -
$17.13
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($20.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.61 -
$17.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.76
Resistance Level
$17.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.63
Wall Street Target
$20.25
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.4%
Profit Margin
60.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.04
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$15.60
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$15.18
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$16.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.6%)
$57.79
(+251%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$22.91
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$19.47
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.95
Bull Case
$35.93
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$32.66
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$11.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$17.94
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey G Dishner
SELL
7013 shares
2026-04-01
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