TMHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock
$58.24
1.03 (1.80%)
▲
5d:
-1.15%
30d:
-9.83%
90d:
-1.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
TMHC is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $65 2026-04-17 with 168 OI. Call ratio: 89% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.85
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMHC is currently trading at $58.24, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.98 to $64.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TMHC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.89 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TMHC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.89 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$57.98 -
$64.06
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.6% below Wall St target ($74.89)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$57.98 -
$64.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.84
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.80
Resistance Level
$60.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$74.89
(+28.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.13
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.05
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$54.98
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$58.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 26.6%)
$295.19
(+407%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 26.6%)
$118.05
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 26.6%)
$100.35
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.77
Bull Case
$52.86
(-11%)
Analyst growth -16.1%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$48.05
(-19%)
Market implied -16.1%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$38.96
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$61.90
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-10-31
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-10-30
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-10-30
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Advanced TMHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMHC price and gamma walls.
