TMHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock
$60.95
-0.60 (-0.97%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMHC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMHC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.11
Based on -6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMHC is currently trading at $60.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.07 to $63.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.25 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.25 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$59.07 -
$63.60
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($75.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with -1.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$59.07 -
$63.60
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.09
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.89
Resistance Level
$65.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.51
Wall Street Target
$75.25
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.2%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$62.41
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$62.85
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -17.2%)
$105.24
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: -17.2%)
$44.87
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -17.2%)
$38.14
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.30
Bull Case
$52.52
(-14%)
Analyst growth -22.0%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$47.74
(-22%)
Market implied -22.0%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$41.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anne L Mariucci
SELL
14002 shares
2025-09-11
Sheryl Palmer
SELL
13513 shares
2025-09-05
Curtis Vanhyfte
SELL
5082 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced TMHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMHC price and gamma walls.
