TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$17.90
0.04 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
-78.05%
30d:
-75.91%
90d:
-3.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.74
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.17
71.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $17.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.82 to $76.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.0) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 33.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+532.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+532.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.82 -
$76.72
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 532.7% below Wall St target ($113.25)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-78.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.82 -
$76.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.76
Resistance Level
$76.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.97
Wall Street Target
$113.25
(+532.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-33.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.0 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-33.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.11
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.50
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→10)
$43.47
(+143%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$219.96
(+1129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.0, Growth: 18.8%)
$30.01
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.5, Growth: 18.8%)
$25.51
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.28
Bull Case
$21.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$17.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$13.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.0 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$59.63
(+233.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+233.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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