TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$75.26
56.91 (310.14%)
▲
5d:
+300.96%
30d:
-10.64%
90d:
-8.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 33.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 33.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.90
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $75.26, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.98 to $88.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.0) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 33.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.35, while resistance sits at $85.76. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 310.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+517.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.35, while resistance sits at $85.76. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 310.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.25 (+517.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$20.98 -
$88.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+310.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 517.2% below Wall St target ($113.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.98 -
$88.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.35
Resistance Level
$85.76
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.05
Wall Street Target
$113.25
(+517.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-33.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.1 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-33.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.86
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→11)
$46.10
(+151%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$222.89
(+1115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.0, Growth: 18.8%)
$30.77
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$26.15
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.31
Bull Case
$22.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$18.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$14.04
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.0 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$63.24
(+244.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+244.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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