TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$102.41
-0.60 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
-1.14%
30d:
+6.55%
90d:
+9.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TROW is down 3.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-06-18 with 800 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.58
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $102.41, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.25 to $103.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$94.25 -
$103.91
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.25 -
$103.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.70
Resistance Level
$106.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.67
Wall Street Target
$97.83
(-4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.58
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$108.86
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$112.23
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 78.5%)
$216.58
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 78.5%)
$104.84
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 78.5%)
$89.12
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.32
Bull Case
$116.70
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$106.09
(+4%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$70.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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Advanced TROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TROW price and gamma walls.
