TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$118.55
2.44 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
+11.48%
30d:
+13.65%
90d:
+31.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TROW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TROW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.13
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $118.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.90 to $111.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $98.33. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $98.33. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$103.90 -
$111.59
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Protect Your Profits
TROW is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.1% above Wall St target ($98.33)
- BEARISH: Market expects 6.6% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.90 -
$111.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.64
Resistance Level
$108.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.16
Wall Street Target
$98.33
(-17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 10.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.37
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$134.72
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$143.61
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.3%)
$221.02
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 1.3%)
$123.35
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 1.3%)
$101.48
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.32
Bull Case
$133.66
(+13%)
Analyst growth 4.6%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$121.51
(+3%)
Market implied 4.6%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$78.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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