TRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$8.10
-0.14 (-1.70%)
▼
5d:
-5.48%
30d:
-2.17%
90d:
-8.47%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.38
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $8.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.11 to $8.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.11 -
$8.51
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($10.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.11 -
$8.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.04
Resistance Level
$8.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.22
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
48.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.95
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$7.81
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$7.67
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$8.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.9%)
$31.09
(+284%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 7.9%)
$10.17
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 7.9%)
$8.65
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$15.69
(+94%)
Analyst growth 75.3%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$14.26
(+76%)
Market implied 75.3%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$5.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.53
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 7:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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