TXRH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$177.97
0.91 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+0.33%
30d:
+11.27%
90d:
-1.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
TXRH is up 16.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 421 OI. Put ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXRH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXRH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$321.48
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.62
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $177.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.30 to $171.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.3) is in line with its historical norms (24.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $153.82, while resistance sits at $185.10.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $153.82, while resistance sits at $185.10.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$156.30 -
$171.34
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$156.30 -
$171.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$153.83
Resistance Level
$185.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.30
Wall Street Target
$193.96
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 24.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$172.67
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$170.08
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$178.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$301.94
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$286.03
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$243.12
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.27
Bull Case
$237.29
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.8%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$215.72
(+21%)
Market implied 21.8%, PE stable at 28.2
Bear Case
$120.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 24.4
Stabilization Target:
$186.39
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Regina A Tobin
SELL
4450 shares
2026-03-19
Hugh J Carroll
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
Hernan E Mujica
SELL
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced TXRH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXRH price and gamma walls.
