UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$623.25
-36.76 (-5.57%)
▼
5d:
-25.99%
30d:
-40.02%
90d:
-13.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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1 traders called UI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UI is down 26.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UI is down 26.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $623.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $798.80 to $1057.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 36.2) compared to its historical average (47.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $632.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+32.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $632.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+32.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$798.80 -
$1057.93
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($826.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -26.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$798.80 -
$1057.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$632.41
Resistance Level
$1032.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.16
Wall Street Target
$826.00
(+32.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.2 vs 47.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$570.27
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$521.80
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$477.45
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→47)
$623.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.2, Growth: 13.0%)
$899.17
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$548.74
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$466.43
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.58
Bull Case
$803.08
(+29%)
Analyst growth 10.6%, PE expands to 46.6
Base Case
$730.08
(+17%)
Market implied 10.6%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case
$448.81
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.2 to 47.2
Stabilization Target:
$813.44
(+30.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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