UI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UI - Ubiquiti Inc. Common Stock
$525.38
-11.00 (-2.05%)
▼
5d:
-2.91%
30d:
-10.74%
90d:
-36.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.6% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.6% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$646.46
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$401.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UI is currently trading at $525.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $544.82 to $588.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (44.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $517.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+57.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $517.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $826.00 (+57.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$544.82 -
$588.16
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.2% below Wall St target ($826.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$544.82 -
$588.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$517.54
Resistance Level
$593.42
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.49
Wall Street Target
$826.00
(+57.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 44.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$472.84
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$425.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$383.00
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→44)
$554.05
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$757.97
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$541.53
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$460.30
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.56
Bull Case
$653.49
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.8%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$594.09
(+13%)
Market implied 10.8%, PE stable at 34.5
Bear Case
$364.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.5 to 44.1
Stabilization Target:
$760.02
(+44.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 6:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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