WLFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WLFC - Willis Lease Finance Corp
$189.84
-21.83 (-10.31%)
▼
5d:
-15.8%
30d:
-9.47%
90d:
-2.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WLFC is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WLFC is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$391.93
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$243.36
22.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $189.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $187.53 to $216.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.00, while resistance sits at $239.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.00 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.00, while resistance sits at $239.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.00 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$187.53 -
$216.79
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($226.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$187.53 -
$216.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.00
Resistance Level
$239.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.56
Wall Street Target
$226.00
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.5%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$185.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$181.95
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$178.13
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$188.85
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 26.7%)
$806.07
(+325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 26.7%)
$386.37
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 26.7%)
$328.41
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.54
Bull Case
$254.83
(+34%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$231.67
(+22%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$145.00
(-24%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$201.26
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin Chandler Willis
SELL
3400 shares
2026-04-01
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
9727 shares
2026-03-27
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
4270 shares
2026-03-26
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