XPOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$6.78
-0.16 (-2.31%)
▼
5d:
-3.0%
30d:
+18.53%
90d:
+7.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPOF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.34
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $6.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.70 to $6.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XPOF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$5.70 -
$6.91
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with -21.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.70 -
$6.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.83
(12.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.24
Resistance Level
$6.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.83
Wall Street Target
$7.21
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-12.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.02
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$7.28
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$7.54
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.75
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 64.9%)
$56.46
(+733%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 64.9%)
$22.88
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 64.9%)
$19.45
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPOF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced XPOF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.
