What is the fair value of XPOF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for XPOF to be between $6.28 and $7.25. The current price is $5.11.

What is the analyst price target for XPOF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for XPOF is $7.19. This implies a potential upside of 40.7% from current levels.

XPOF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

XPOF - Xponential Fitness, Inc.

SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION

$5.11

0.01 (0.20%) ▲

5d: -21.87%

30d: -28.03%

90d: -37.3%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your XPOF Gains

Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 07, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

XPOF is down 21.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $7.5 2026-07-17 with 1,764 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: XPOF is down 21.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$11.86

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$7.36

30.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: XPOF is currently trading at $5.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.28 to $7.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, XPOF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.94, while resistance sits at $6.86.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.19 (+40.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $6.28 - $7.25

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($7.19)
WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $6.28 - $7.25

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $4.94

Resistance Level $6.86

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of May 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.71

Wall Street Target $7.19 (+40.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -21.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -81.7%

Profit Margin -12.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 6.7 vs 8.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $4.82 (-6%)

2-Year Target $4.55 (-11%)

3-Year Target $4.30 (-16%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→8) $5.12 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.0, Growth: 73.0%) $56.61 (+1008%)

Base: (SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 73.0%) $17.25 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 5.7, Growth: 73.0%) $14.66 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 8.0

Stabilization Target: $6.09 (+19.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +19.2%

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Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XPOF price and gamma walls.

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