AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$49.63
0.37 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-13.29%
30d:
-12.75%
90d:
-14.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
AAP is down 12.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-06-18 with 8,250 OI. Call ratio: 79% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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1 traders called AAP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAP is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAP is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.58
32.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $49.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.81 to $58.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.16 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.16 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$53.81 -
$58.67
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.16)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.81 -
$58.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.25
Resistance Level
$60.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.55
Wall Street Target
$57.16
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.4%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.86
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$42.70
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$39.75
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$49.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 41.6%)
$245.62
(+399%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 41.6%)
$139.84
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 41.6%)
$118.86
(+141%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$114.03
(+132%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.5
Base Case
$103.66
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.9
Bear Case
$35.24
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$60.85
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 1:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
