ADC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADC - Agree Realty Corporation
$74.46
-0.82 (-1.09%)
▼
5d:
-2.31%
30d:
-5.66%
90d:
-4.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ADC is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $80 2026-06-18 with 405 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.13
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADC is currently trading at $74.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.68 to $78.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.7) is in line with its historical norms (37.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.44 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.44 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$75.68 -
$78.13
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($85.44)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.68 -
$78.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.77
(3.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.30
Resistance Level
$77.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.66
Wall Street Target
$85.44
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.7 vs 37.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.20
(0%)
2-Year Target
$75.13
(0%)
3-Year Target
$75.05
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→38)
$75.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.7, Growth: 4.9%)
$86.79
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.9%)
$50.80
(-33%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 4.9%)
$43.18
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$89.34
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 44.7
Base Case
$81.22
(+8%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 40.6
Bear Case
$51.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.7 to 37.8
Stabilization Target:
$75.57
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Rakolta Jr
BUY
146 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-15
Peter Coughenour
BUY
500 shares
2026-01-09
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Advanced ADC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADC price and gamma walls.
