AGNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGNC - AGNC Investment Corp. Common Stock
$11.00
0.21 (1.95%)
▲
5d:
+3.58%
30d:
+7.84%
90d:
+9.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
15d
Get Alerted When AGNC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AGNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.35
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGNC is currently trading at $11.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.20 to $10.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGNC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGNC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.20 -
$10.71
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.20 -
$10.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.30
Resistance Level
$11.03
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.35
Wall Street Target
$11.38
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
546.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
772.4%
Profit Margin
91.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.16
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$11.33
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$11.50
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.96
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.4%)
$28.46
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -4.4%)
$9.60
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -4.4%)
$8.16
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.28
Bull Case
$13.88
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$12.62
(+15%)
Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$7.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AGNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gary D Kain
SELL
700000 shares
2026-01-29
Bernice Bell
SELL
25000 shares
2026-01-28
Kenneth L Pollack
SELL
50000 shares
2026-01-28
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 62 BUY |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 62 BUY |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 54 HOLD |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 59 HOLD |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 53 HOLD |
