ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$116.37
-1.09 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-6.55%
30d:
+0.2%
90d:
-2.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALSN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.54
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.45
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $116.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.03 to $119.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $110.79, while resistance sits at $125.90.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $110.79, while resistance sits at $125.90.
Market Sentiment: ALSN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.40 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$114.03 -
$119.94
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($137.40)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.03 -
$119.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.79
Resistance Level
$125.90
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.26
Wall Street Target
$137.40
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.62
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$112.91
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$111.21
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$116.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$368.65
(+217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 14.3%)
$173.62
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$147.57
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.43
Bull Case
$227.97
(+96%)
Analyst growth 76.4%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$207.25
(+78%)
Market implied 76.4%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$79.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$121.39
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
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