ALV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$116.24
2.90 (2.56%)
▲
5d:
-3.78%
30d:
-11.73%
90d:
+8.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 17, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$183.60
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $116.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.94 to $129.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.24 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.24 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$117.94 -
$129.11
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($133.24)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.94 -
$129.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.29
Resistance Level
$121.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$133.24
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$113.47
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$112.11
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$115.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$382.09
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$171.38
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 13.8%)
$145.67
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.29
Bull Case
$159.69
(+37%)
Analyst growth 28.1%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$145.17
(+25%)
Market implied 28.1%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$77.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$120.18
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Franz-Josef Kortuem
SELL
8300 shares
2026-02-26
Magnus Jarlegren
SELL
1598 shares
2026-02-25
Christian Swahn
SELL
1478 shares
2026-02-24
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