BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$84.69
-0.08 (-0.09%)
▼
5d:
-4.54%
30d:
+12.37%
90d:
+4.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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1 traders called BLDR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BLDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$164.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.38
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $84.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.00 to $84.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.02, while resistance sits at $90.96.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.02, while resistance sits at $90.96.
Market Sentiment: BLDR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.38 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.00 -
$84.55
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($97.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -10.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.00 -
$84.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.02
Resistance Level
$90.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.40
Wall Street Target
$97.38
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.9%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.77
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$84.86
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$84.94
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 37.2%)
$330.41
(+290%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 37.2%)
$218.50
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 37.2%)
$185.73
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.62
Bull Case
$186.49
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.6
Base Case
$169.54
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.4
Bear Case
$57.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Paul S Levy
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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