NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$87.49
-0.76 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-4.96%
30d:
-14.27%
90d:
+6.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
NFLX is down 13.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $120 2026-07-17 with 107,264 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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11 traders called NFLX this week
85% bullish • 2 bearish
85% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFLX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.63
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $87.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.04 to $101.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (25.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.56 (+30.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFLX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.56 (+30.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$90.04 -
$101.55
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.9% below Wall St target ($114.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.04 -
$101.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.72
Resistance Level
$94.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.85
Wall Street Target
$114.56
(+30.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 25.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.52
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$81.64
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$78.87
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→25)
$87.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$105.83
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$101.63
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 6.5%)
$86.39
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$119.92
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$109.02
(+25%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$60.01
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.8 to 25.4
Stabilization Target:
$97.27
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 11, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
