SWIM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWIM - Latham Group, Inc. Common Stock
$5.22
0.06 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+9.66%
30d:
-13.29%
90d:
-21.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.18
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWIM is currently trading at $5.22, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.13 to $6.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (29.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.64, while resistance sits at $5.84.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.14 (+56.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.64, while resistance sits at $5.84.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.14 (+56.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.13 -
$6.10
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.0% below Wall St target ($8.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.13 -
$6.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.64
Resistance Level
$5.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.29
Wall Street Target
$8.14
(+56.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 29.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.81
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→29)
$5.74
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 30.3%)
$13.16
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 30.3%)
$11.54
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 30.3%)
$9.81
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (72x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 71.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.07
Bull Case
$11.04
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 78.9
Base Case
$10.04
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 71.7
Bear Case
$3.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 61.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.3 to 29.1
Stabilization Target:
$7.87
(+50.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWIM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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