ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$114.79
15.37 (15.46%)
▲
5d:
+29.52%
30d:
+23.5%
90d:
+58.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Feb 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ALGT is 18.5% above fair value ($96.85). Market expects -3.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ALGT is 18.5% above fair value ($96.85). Market expects -3.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$248.01
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$153.99
25.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $114.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.95 to $96.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$84.95 -
$96.85
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+18.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+15.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.91)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 18.5% overvaluation
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.95 -
$96.85
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.91
Resistance Level
$117.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Feb 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.29
Wall Street Target
$109.91
(-4.3%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.4%
Profit Margin
-11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.54
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$106.45
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$102.51
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$114.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.7%)
$440.15
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 24.7%)
$222.75
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 24.7%)
$189.34
(+65%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$128.16
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: February 08, 2026 10:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sandra Douglass Morgan
SELL
350 shares
2025-10-28
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