ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$118.67
-0.49 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
+7.83%
30d:
+35.36%
90d:
+42.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALGT is 8.9% above its trading range ($108.98). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALGT is 8.9% above its trading range ($108.98). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$210.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.53
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $118.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.53 to $108.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $98.32, while resistance sits at $123.63.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $98.32, while resistance sits at $123.63.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.53 -
$108.98
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($115.77)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.53 -
$108.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.32
Resistance Level
$123.63
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.88
Wall Street Target
$115.77
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.47
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$126.39
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$130.43
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 48.8%)
$782.88
(+560%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 48.8%)
$391.20
(+230%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 48.8%)
$332.52
(+180%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
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