ALSN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALSN - ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC.
$123.62
1.15 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+0.49%
30d:
-1.75%
90d:
+6.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALSN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALSN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.30
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.89
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALSN is currently trading at $123.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.74 to $132.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.91, while resistance sits at $134.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.50 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALSN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.91, while resistance sits at $134.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.50 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$122.74 -
$132.33
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($136.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.74 -
$132.33
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.91
Resistance Level
$134.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.74
Wall Street Target
$136.50
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.86
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$121.25
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$120.64
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$122.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 21.6%)
$452.32
(+269%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 21.6%)
$220.38
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.6%)
$187.32
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.43
Bull Case
$241.39
(+97%)
Analyst growth 77.4%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$219.44
(+79%)
Market implied 77.4%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$84.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$124.31
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 12:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALSN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric C Scroggins
SELL
1313 shares
2026-03-09
John Coll
SELL
1791 shares
2025-12-31
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